November 2007 Edition

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Jehangir Rashid
Srinagar

CHANGING weather patterns are likely to decrease agricultural production in Jammu and Kashmir, says a report published by Action Aid International on climate change and its impact in the state. Temperatures, on an average, have increased by 1.45 degree Celsius in Kashmir and by 2.32 degree Celsius in Jammu. The report says that food security for more than four million people living in the Karewa region of Budgam district and in Uri, Gurez, Karnah, Drass, Ladakh and Doda is under threat. Early and fast melting of glaciers in the Pir Panchal mountain range have severely affected water availability in the last one and half decades, according to the report. Fluctuating temperatures and rainfall variations are leading to decreased agricultural output in these areas. Certain crops have either completely failed or are being replaced by low water fodder. Saffron production, paddy and maize have been hit. Quoting the then Director of Agriculture, Ghulam Hyder Bhatt, the report says that if temperature fluctuations continue, the overall yield of paddy, which is the main crop of the Valley, may fall by 15 to 30 per cent since paddy seedlings will not get enough time to mature.

The shift from paddy to high yielding cash crops and fruits has yielded better economic returns in the Karewa areas of Kupwara, Baramulla, Budgam and Pulwama. But if new cash crops fail it would mean loss of both rice, a food crop, and loss of income from the newly adopted cash crops. Quoting information provided by the Directorate of Agriculture the report says that in 1980-81 the Kashmir Valley had a food deficit of 23 per cent for a total population of 33 lakhs while in 2005-06 the food deficit has reached 40 per cent for a population of 60 lakhs. Vegetable production has decreased by 30 percent and oilseed output by 69 percent. The report recommends that the government evolve a food security monitoring mechanism. It should seek the cooperation of NGOs and draw plans for food security. The state government should take urgent steps to minimise the emission of greenhouse gases, locally, said Arjimand Hussain Talib, Project Manager, Action Aid.

He said most of these gases get trapped in the Valley since it is surrounded by high mountains on all sides. Stringent laws need to be implemented for checking emissions from private vehicles and industrial units and from government and military establishments. Emissions from charcoal based heating systems, used in winter, must be monitored. Hundreds of heavy military vehicles move in convoys throughout Kashmir everyday, producing a high level of greenhouse gases. These vehicles are outside the purview of the state’s pollution control board. The government must bring all non-civilian vehicles within the ambit of state pollution laws since military vehicles move through the most ecologically sensitive areas of Kashmir. According to the Indian Meteorological Department temperatures are increasing in Jammu and the Kashmir Valley by 0.05 degree Celsius. According to the recently released report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures are likely to rise by 1.1 degree Celsius to 6.4 degree Celsius by 2100. This means that the plains of Kashmir would no longer receive snow. Snowfall in the upper reaches will not be able to feed rivers through the year and this will affect the livelihood of communities.

The report said that western disturbances over Kashmir will become unpredictable, due to global factors. Distribution and quantity of rainfall will change too.The report says that heat-rapping gases which have reduced snowfall in Khrew-Pampore and Anantnag could spill over to other areas resulting in less or no snow in the plains in the coming two decades. The report pointed out that hundreds of springs spread across Kashmir have either dried up or are in the process of drying up. Groundwater levels in most plains do not seem to have been adversely affected. But in Karewas and the upper areas groundwater levels have reduced by one-third. The time period for snowfall has undergone a sea change with December and January receiving scant or no snow while February and March witness heavy snowfall. Although occasionally there are spells of heavy snowfall, the inability of snow to freeze and develop into hard longer-lasting crystals owing to higher temperatures has resulted in faster meltdown. The report says in the Kalaroos area in Kupwara district only three feet of snowfall was recorded as compared to 10 feet in the past. The same trend has been witnessed in Manzgam and Wader areas of the same district. The report observes that the amount of rainfall received in December, January and February has increased in comparison to the past.

 

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