August 2007 Edition
Rina Mukherji
Kolkata
WEST Bengal and Bangladesh are experiencing the effects of global warming as islands in the Sundarbans get swallowed by the sea. Lohachhara and Bedford have already disappeared, while a dozen more like Mousuni, Sagar, Dalhousie, Ghoramara, and G -plot are facing severe erosion. Sagar, in particular, has lost 30 square km over the past 30 years. Fifty-two out of 100 islands support a population of 1.8 million people. In Bangladesh, several acres in Chokoria Sundarbans are under water.Prof Sugata Hazra, Director, School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, was the first to draw attention to rising sea levels in this region when he published his paper titled, “Vulnerability Assessment in a Climate Change Scenario: A pilot study on the ecologically sensitive Sundarbans island system, West Bengal.” His study pointed to a 0.19 degree centigrade annual rise in temperature with a 3.14 mm rise in sea levels in the Sunderbans. This would increase to 3.5 mm per year over the next few decades. These changes would be accompanied by intensification of storms, devastation and flooding in the islands. Half a million people could become environmental refugees by 2020. Prof Hazra spoke to Civil Society about what could be done to alleviate the effects of rising sea levels in the Sundarbans.
You have been talking of adaptive intervention in the Sundarbans to combat rising sea levels. Could you explain?
Global warming and climate change are realities we cannot undo. We will have to live with these changes. But we can put in some effort to change the livelihoods of people living there. We can prevent the overexploitation of resources and check the effect of salinity on agriculture. We will require well-coordinated efforts to check population growth in these areas, build embankments to check erosion at certain vulnerable points, change cropping patterns, regulate the collection of prawn seedlings, stop cross- border migration and conserve forests. For this, we need to have government agencies working together, rather than at cross-purposes. A people’s movement, rather than the government, can make a big difference. Small interventions such as by the Ramakrishna Mission at Neempith are already showing results.
What kind of interventions are you referring to?
Salinity in the Sundarbans is due to lack of adequate fresh water supplies. But even with heavier rains, fresh water will not besufficient unless measures are taken to conserve water and maintain groundwater levels. Paddy mono-cropping is the norm in the Sundarbans. This will have to be replaced by multi-cropping by planting crops like tomato that do not use so much water and hence restore groundwater levels. Conservation of water is the key to checking salinity and taking care of food security. We also need to put back the tree cover with species that can restore the water table. The Ramakrishna Mission at Neempith has been working with people since the '80s. They have focused on providing scientific agricultural inputs. The mission has successfully helped people to switch from paddy mono-cropping to multi-cropping with cultivation of crops that can be rotated with paddy to restore the balance in the soil.
How serious are the risks of the islands disappearing altogether?
The Sundarbans is a very big area. There are high
risk and low-risk zones. Whenever there is a storm
surge, the high risk zones can get inundated with
waters that rise by 2 m in height. The low risk
zones will get affected only if the waves exceed
more than 3.5 m in 
height. There is always a small
amount of ingress by sea water into the estuarine
areas here. But erosion is a serious problem with the south-facing islands alone.
With more land getting swallowed by the sea,
and the disappearance of islands like Lohachhara, population pressures are going to increase. Yes,
Lohacchara has disappeared, displacing some
10,000 people. But Bedford was uninhabited.
However, there is no denying that population
pressures are a moot point. Since 1947, there has
been a 234 per cent increase in the population of
the Sunderbans. The average family has eight or
nine children. Cross-border migration from
Bangladesh occurs by the week. We will have to
seal our borders.
How many people can we accommodate?
No environmentalist will talk of controlling the population. But in truth, family planning measures will need to be strictly implemented.Unless that is done, overexploitation of resources can never cease. For this, it is necessary to equip primary healthcentres and take measures to reach out to the people. As of now, this is sorely lacking.
Is there going to be an acute shortage offresh water here?
Not really. Since global warming goes hand in hand with increased rainfall, fresh water supplies will increase. I am not afraid aboutthat. But efforts will have to be made to conserve water. As for increased salinity, crops can adapt to saline lands in the samemanner as tigers and other animals in the Sundarbans have adapted to saline water. In West Bengal, we have 11 salinityresistant paddy varieties that can be grown here. We don’t need any genetically modified paddy for this. One only needs topopularise the salinityresistant varieties. The cropping pattern needs to be changed.
What would your suggestions be for the Sunderbans?
I do not want to make any suggestions as regards reclamation or physical changes. But in view of the intensifying storms in this region as a fall-out of global warming, communications systems ought to be improved. Trawlers could be fitted with better warning systems and multipurpose shelters could be constructed to protect populations during storms and cyclones. At other times, these shelters could be used as primary health centres or as public utility buildings.
Would extensive planting of mangrove forests help?
Mangrove plantation should be a priority particularly on the toe or river/sea facing side of the embankments. This would also improve the health of the ecosystem.
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